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A water balance model to estimate climate change impact on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

Authors :
Rodríguez-Huerta, Edgar
Rosas-Casals, Martí
Hernández-Terrones, Laura Margarita
Source :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques. Mar2020, Vol. 65 Issue 3, p470-486. 17p.
Publication Year :
2020

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
02626667
Volume :
65
Issue :
3
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
141601018
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1702989