Modelling future patterns of urbanization, residential energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Dar es Salaam with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways.

This paper presents three scenarios of urban growth, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Dar es Salaam using narratives that are consistent with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). We estimate residential energy demand and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 for household activities (including upstream electricity generation) and passenger (road) transport (Scopes 1 and 2). We project that by 2050, Dar es Salaam's total residential emissions would increase from 1,400 ktCO 2 e (in 2015) up to 25,000–33,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP1); 11,000–19,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP2); and 5,700–11,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP3), with ranges corresponding to different assumptions about household size. This correlates with an increase in per capita emissions from 0.2 tCO 2 e in 2015 to 1.5–2 tCO 2 e (SSP1); 0.7–1.3 tCO 2 e (SSP2); and 0.5–0.9 tCO 2 e (SSP3). Higher emissions in SSP1 (the sustainability scenario) are driven by a higher urban population in 2050 and increased energy access and electricity consumption. Through aggressive GHG mitigation policies focused on decarbonization of the electricity sector and road transport, total emissions under SSP1 can be reduced by ∼66% in 2050. Study insights aim to inform policies that identify and capture synergies between low-GHG investments and broader socio-economic development goals in Sub-Saharan African cities. • Provides the first projection of residential energy use and GHG emissions in Dar es Salaam and demonstrates the use of the SSPs at the city scale. • Analyzes the key drivers of residential energy use and GHG emissions in a large SSA city, Dar es Salaam, offering new insights for the region. • Demonstrates a method for projecting emissions in a data-poor environment. • Shows the wide uncertainty in these future projections, while also demonstrating the order of magnitude jump in emissions that can be expected in Dar es Salaam to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]