Quantitative analysis of China's Low-Carbon energy transition.

• Establish a quantitative technical-economic model for energy transition simulation. • Propose a mathematic approach to describe the energy transition target and pathway. • Evaluate China's energy strategy in terms of energy, economic, and emission by 2050. • Analyze the uncertain range of China's cumulative CO 2 emission and allowance by 2050. The quantitative analysis of the low-carbon energy transition is crucial for providing decision-support for energy planning and policy-making. This study presented an approach for quantitative analysis of energy transition, involving dynamic simulation model, mathematical methods of describing the energy transition targets and pathways, boundary condition, and evaluation indicators. The transition targets of Baseline scenario were set following the Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016 – 2030) (hereinafter referred to as the Energy Strategy) promulgated by the Chinese government. Four comparative scenarios were generated by adjusting the targets of the total primary energy consumption and the proportion of power generation. The carbon emissions and economic costs were calculated based on the quantitative dynamic simulation model. In the study, an attempt was made to explain whether China's cumulative carbon emissions following the Energy Strategy match the emission quotas under the global 2 °C temperature rise target. Furthermore, the future research direction for low-carbon transition was also analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]