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Nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality in early-onset rectal cancer: a competing risk analysis.
- Source :
-
International Journal of Colorectal Disease . May2020, Vol. 35 Issue 5, p795-804. 10p. 2 Diagrams, 3 Charts, 2 Graphs. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- Background: The incidence of rectal cancer has meaningfully increased in young patients. However, quantitative evaluation for the competing data of early-onset rectal cancer is lacking. So, we performed a competing risk analysis to calculate the cumulative incidence of death for patients with early-onset rectal cancer and developed a nomogram to predict the probability of cancer-specific mortality for these patients. Methods: We abstracted data of patients with early-onset rectal cancer between 2004 and 2016 by using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database. The cumulative incidence function was used to calculate the crude cancer-specific mortality of early-onset rectal cancer. Fine and Gray's proportional sub-distribution hazard model was adopted to explore the risk factors of cancer-specific death. Then, we establish a nomogram to predict their 3-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities. Results: We identified 9917 patients with early-onset rectal cancer, and they were randomly divided into training (n = 6941) and validation (n = 2976) cohorts. In the training cohort, the 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidences of cancer-specific death after diagnosis for early-onset rectal cancer were 11.4%, 19.9%, and 28.8%, respectively. Fine and Gray's model showed that sex, race, marital status, histology, T stage, N stage, M stage, examined lymph nodes, and pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen were independently associated with cancer-specific mortality. Such factors were selected to develop a prognostic nomogram. Conclusion: The competing risk nomogram has an ideal performance for predictive cancer-specific mortality in early-onset rectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01791958
- Volume :
- 35
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- International Journal of Colorectal Disease
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 142738755
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00384-020-03527-9