An assessment of opportunities for cogenerating electricity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands.

• A novel energy-environmental model for penetration of oil sands cogeneration. • Interactions between industry cogeneration and provincial grid system considered. • 2% of oil sands greenhouse gas emissions could be mitigated by 2050. • The marginal abatement cost is $15 per tonne of carbon abated. • 92% of emission mitigation came from the steam-assisted gravity drainage sector. The purpose of this research is to evaluate greenhouse gas emission reduction opportunities from cogenerated electricity in oil sands production. A novel combined market penetration and bottom-up energy system modelling framework was developed to assess the long-range potential and marginal costs of cogenerated electricity in the oil sands. Feasible scenarios for incorporating cogeneration into the in situ, surface mining, and upgrading subsectors were developed along with four additional scenarios incorporating electricity-based technologies to improve in situ plant efficiencies. These scenarios were evaluated under three different carbon pricing policies; twenty-one scenarios in total covering the time period 2019 to 2050. The use of cogeneration in the oil sands for new production during this period was determined through market penetration modelling and the results were compared to a reference scenario of limited cogeneration growth. It was found that there is potential to provide 76 million tonnes of greenhouse gas abatement (2% of cumulative projected oil sands emissions) at a marginal cost of $15 per tonne of carbon abated compared to the reference scenario. The incorporation of electrical equipment, specifically well-pad boilers, well-pad compressors, additional steam compressors, and steam superheaters, resulted in additional costs that outweighed the benefits. A $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent carbon price (within the current Alberta emission reduction regulation) resulted in a 2% increase in forecasted greenhouse gas abatement potential and a $1.4/tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent decrease in marginal abatement costs compared to no carbon pricing. This research provides quantification of the greenhouse gas emission abatement potential and marginal abatement costs of cogeneration technologies to allow industry stakeholders and policymakers to compare these technology options to others when considering long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]