非洲猪瘟背景下养猪户决策行为及其影响因素.

This study aims to explore the impact of African swine fever epidemic on the decision-making behavior of pig farmers, and thereby to provide decision-making reference for the stable production and supply of live pigs. The survey data are come from 786 pig farmers in Hebei Province, China. Three procedures can be performed in the study. Firstly, a multiple disorder logistic model was established to find the factors affecting the decision-making behavior of pig farmers. Secondly, the cross-listing and logistic grouping regression were used to analyze some differences in decision-making behaviors of pig farmers from different farm sizes. Finally, the corresponding analysis methods were used to investigate the biosecurity behavior and preferences of pig farmers against African swine fever epidemic. The results show that: 1) There are positive and negative influence factors related to the production decision-making behavior of pig farmers in African swine fever. The positive factors are the breeding scale, biosecurity prevention and control measures, assessment of the prevention and control effect in the biosecurity system, and other financial funding. The negative factors are the loss from diseases and the cost of biosafety systems. Specifically, the pig farmers from a high breeding scale, better evaluation of the prevention and control effect in various available biosecurity system, tended to adopt the positive decision-making behavior of expanding the breeding scale based on the current state. The principal component method was used to calculate three indicators, including relatives’ help, government funding and other financial investing. If the index values of three comprehensive external support were high, pig farmers can be possible to promote the breeding scale. But if the great loss was suffered by the African swine fever epidemic, particularly on financial lacking in the construction and usage of biosafety systems, pig farmers were likely to reduce the scale of breeding, and even withdraw from the market. 2) There were significant differences in the decision-making behaviors of pig farmers from different farming sizes. Three aspects related to the differences are risk perception of pig farmers, prevention and control abilities of biological safety system, and external financial support. The pig households from small scale usually faced much more various restrictive factors. 3) There were some differences in biosecurity prevention and control measures adopted by pig farmers from different sizes. The specific performance was as followed: large- and medium-scale pig farmers prefer to adopt point-based feeding method, all-out all-entry feeding mode, Site selection and layout of pig farms, epidemic prevention of objects entering and leaving pig farms, prevention and control of mosquitoes, rats, birds, introduction and isolation management, and other prevention and control measures based on hardware contributions. Small scale and free-range households mostly adopted total disinfection management, feed and drinking water management and epidemic prevention, vehicle management to enter and exit the pig farm and epidemic prevention, vaccine, drug use management and epidemic prevention, entry to and from pig farm personnel management and epidemic prevention, environmental management and epidemic prevention in and out of pig farms, and other prevention and control measures that favor the software attribute. The paper proposed to take two measures for state, 1) to support the development of large-scale pig farms and build a social biosafety prevention and control system, for pig farmers 2) to strengthen prevention and control measures for high biological safety, and to improve management level in a collective development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]