Data-based agroecological zoning of Acrocomia aculeata: GIS modeling and ecophysiological aspects into a Brazilian representative occurrence area.

• Artificial intelligence and GIS in the study of Acrocomia aculeata fruits quality. • The prediction model for macauba fruit components showed considerable reliability. • Some geographic regions revealed optimum suitability for macauba fruit development. • Temperature was the most important factor influencing six of eight fruit components. • Macauba agroclimatic zoning can lead to a more sustainable agriculture practice. Macauba palm (Acrocomia aculeata (Jacq.) Lodd.) is an emergent oleaginous crop with undeniable economical potential that occurs naturally from south Mexico to south Brazil. Besides its oils, every biomass component from its fruit has a great manufacturing value, for either food or energy-based sectors. Thus, this paper main objective is to estimate the productive potential of eight fruit components (among oil content, weight, volume and internal structures dry mass) for a wide natural occurrence area of macauba trees, the Minas Gerais State, in Brazil. Prediction was based on six environmental attributes: terrain altitude; temperature; precipitation; solar radiation; distance from hydrography; and water deficit, utilizing Random Forest regression methodology, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and ecophysiological assumptions. All eight fruit components presented high predictability. Temperature was the most influencing factor in almost all evaluated fruit components. The generated predictive maps can support decision making regarding planting orientation or industrial implantation. It is worth mentioning that a given location may have good productivity for a specific fruit component while being disadvantageous for others. This indicates the need for proper planning, management and/or cultivation objective. The study area presents a broad variety of environmental features, suggesting a promising productive potential for the entire specie natural occurrence area. Crop cultivation in adapted ecophysiological areas require fewer resources, what leads to a more sustainable agricultural system, with reduced environmental stress and risk of economic loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]