A highly integrated, expansible, and comprehensive analytical framework for urban ecological land: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

The analysis of historical changes, exploration of driving forces, and understanding of future changes in ecological land can provide a scientific basis for sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing areas. In this paper, with the support of GIS spatial analysis, the landscape index, the Moran's index and multiple logistic regression models, we constructed an integrated ecological land analysis framework, which included historical trajectories, driving factors and future simulation projections. A comprehensive analysis was carried out in the case city of Guangzhou, China, and the results showed the following: (1) In the past 25 years, the ecological land of Guangzhou has shown a decreasing trend, with its area decreasing by 59.7 km2. Dramatic changes occurred between 2000 and 2010. (2) The quality of the urban ecological environment has two opposite trends at the same time: improvement and degeneration. The agglomeration of ecological land is weakened, heterogeneity is enhanced, and the diversity and uniformity of landscape are slightly reduced. (3) Altitude, GDP per unit area, and distance to the nearest road were the main driving factors for ecological land changes. To alleviate the pressure of urban expansion on ecological land, the downtown, Huangpu and Nansha districts must pay more attention to improving the level of intensive land use in the future. The study results have reference value for the Department of Guangzhou Urban Planning and offer an analysis framework for similar studies. • A comprehensive technical framework for urban ecological land assessment was constructed. • The spatial-temporal distribution and change trajectory of ecological land in Guanzhou was detected and modeled. • DEM altitude, economic development, and distribution of roads influence the ecological land changes. • The downtown, Huangpu and Nansha districts will face severe pressure in terms of ecological land protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]