Fault geometry beneath the western and Central Marmara Sea, Turkey, based on ocean bottom seismographic observations: Implications for future large earthquakes.

Beneath the Marmara Sea, Turkey, the Main Marmara Fault (MMF), the offshore part of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), is a well-known seismic gap for future M > 7 earthquakes. However, its detailed fault geometry and microearthquake activity have been debated for several decades. Using data acquired from long-term ocean bottom seismograph (OBS) observations, we made precise hypocenter estimations based on 3-D Vp and Vs velocity structures and assessed the fault geometry beneath the western and central parts of the MMF. The results indicate a segmentation boundary between the near-vertical western part and the south-dipping eastern part located around 28.10°E. Enriched OBS locations indicate microseismicity along both the inner and outer boundary faults of the Central Basin, especially on the western side. A comparison with previously published results suggests that the seismicity pattern has not changed for at least two years, between 2014 and 2016. Using a combined dataset of this and previous studies, lateral variations in the dip angle along the MMF fault segment from 27.4°E to 28.8°E were investigated. Based on this, we depicted on-fault seismicity along the MMF and defined three inactive areas of microseismicity. Two are located in the western segment, corresponding to the rupture area of the 1912 Ms. 7.4 earthquake, and the other, the largest, is located on the eastern segment. From a comparison of previous seismic and geodetic studies, it is considered that this area is a fully locked zone and has the potential for large earthquakes. Having compared the difference between hypocenter locations determined from OBSs and land-based stations, it is proposed that the epicentral locations of the mainshock and aftershocks of the September 26, 2019, M 5.7 earthquake are located much closer to the MMF than locations reported from only land-based results. • A segmentation boundary on the Main Marmara Fault is identified beneath the Central Basin. • Both inner and outer boundary faults of the Central Basin are developed in the western Central Basin. • Zones of no seismicity beneath the Kumburgaz Basin have the potential for a large earthquake. • The focal area of the September 2019 M 5.7 event was close to the Main Marmara Fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]