Development of "water-suitable" agriculture based on a statistical analysis of factors affecting irrigation water demand.

Water shortage has become a serious problem for the sustainable development of irrigated agriculture in arid regions. In these areas, the scale and planting structure of agriculture suitable for local water resources is particularly important. Irrigation water demand is a crucial indicator of water requirement in irrigation districts. In this study, Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the temporal changes of climatic factors of the past 50 years and ArcGis to determine spatial changes in human activities. The path analysis was used to quantitative characterize direct and indirect effects of these factors on irrigation water demand and suggest how human activity can be altered to reduce irrigation water demand. The results show that temperature has risen significantly since the completion of the second-stage irrigation district, wind speed has dropped since the completion of the first-stage irrigation district, and cultivated land area has greatly expanded. The direct impact and comprehensive effect of planting area on irrigation water demand is the largest. Controlling for the total water intake, the maximum agricultural planting scale is 40,133 ha. Through adjustment of the planting structure, the scale of irrigated agriculture could increase by as much as 25.8%. Therefore, agricultural planting structures and planting scales suitable for local water resources should be put into action for future sustainable development of agriculture. Unlabelled Image • Calculated the timing change of net irrigation water demand • Climate factors and human activities have changed significantly. • Planting area is the most important direct factor affecting crop water demand. • Adjusting crop planting structure expands agro-scale by 25.8% at given water supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]