Climate Change Drives Increases in Extreme Events for Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere.

Extreme climate events can have significant consequences on ecosystems and by extension human populations. Over 50 million of the world's lakes typically freeze each winter, and the absence of winter ice cover, in lakes where ice has historically been present, can be characterized as an extreme event. We quantified the effects of extreme climate events on lake ice cover using 78‐year ice records from 122 lakes to show that (1) extreme ice‐free years are becoming more frequent and severe, (2) winter air temperature is a significant predictor of ice cover that was driven by large‐scale climate oscillations, (3) extremes in temperature are closely related to extremes in ice cover, and (4) ice‐free years are forecasted to result in significant loss of ice‐cover in the future. Without drastic reductions in carbon emissions, we can expect the widespread loss of lake ice cover could have significant socioeconomic and biological implications. Plain Language Summary: Climate change is expected to have a large impact on humans and our natural systems. Freshwater lakes are an important resource and each year, millions around the world freeze during the winter months. However, climate change is expected to threaten the freezing of some of these lakes. We explored 122 lakes that typically freeze over winter and that had records of freeze/thaw since 1939. We asked, do extremes in winter air temperature affect extremes in lake ice cover and what would that mean for the future? Winter air temperature was found to closely predict ice‐free years for lakes. Years with abnormally hot winters were also years where many lakes remained ice‐free. Projecting into the future, we predicted that lakes will continue to experience more ice‐free years. With a reduction in carbon emissions, there will be a modest increase in ice‐free years, but if carbon emissions continue as they are currently, there could be a large increase in ice‐free lakes. This study highlights lake ice as another victim of climate change. The loss of lake ice will have impacts to natural systems and also socioeconomic implications for human populations that are dependent on it. Key Points: Observed recent increases in ice‐free years for 122 lakes since 1939Extremes in winter air temperature were observed to closely relate to extremes in ice‐free cover for lakesUsing climate change scenarios, ice‐free years for lakes are predicted to increase significantly in the next decades [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]