Evaluation and validation of TAMSAT‐ALERT soil moisture and WRSI for use in drought anticipatory action.

Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision‐making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting tool is assessed in the present paper in terms of its ability to provide skilful information of the likelihood of drought impacts on crops and pasture within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. The Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT‐ALERT) tool provides forecasts of seasonal mean soil moisture and the water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI). TAMSAT‐ALERT metrics were found to be strongly correlated with pasture availability and maize yield in Kenya and provided skilful forecasts early in key seasons, allowing sufficient time for preparatory actions. Incorporating TAMSAT‐ALERT forecasts in a layered approach, with actions triggered by spatiotemporally varying triggers and fundamentally informed by humanitarian actors, will provide reliable information on the likelihood of drought, ultimately mitigating food insecurity.Anticipatory drought‐risk management is gaining considerable attention owing to its potential to improve food security. The suitability of Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data—AgriculturaL Early waRning sysTem (TAMSAT‐ALERT) soil moisture and water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) forecasts are assessed in terms of their ability to provide skilful information on the likelihood of drought impacts within a timeframe that allows for anticipatory action. Triggers based on TAMSAT‐ALERT forecasts and developed in collaboration with humanitarian actors present promise for use in anticipatory drought‐risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]