Spatiotemporal evolution of decoupling and driving forces of CO2 emissions on economic growth along the Belt and Road.

Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has increased the economic growth of many developing countries in Asia, more attention should be paid to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in these regions. Based on the Tapio decoupling model and Kaya-LMDI model, this paper investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of decoupling and driving factors of CO2 emissions of 57 BRI countries from 1991 to 2016. The results are as follows. First, the decoupling statuses of higher income countries are generally better than lower income countries. Second, Northeast Asia, South Asia, and West Asia accounted for 68.5%, 16.8%, and 13.3% of CO2 emission increases in BRI countries from 1991 to 2016. Third, almost all countries' CO2 emissions significantly rise due to economic growth, while energy intensity reduces CO2 emissions to some extent. Energy exports increase CO2 emissions to varying degrees in Asia countries, but their impact has gradually fallen. Except for Europe, the population size effect increases CO2 emissions, especially in West Asia. China, India, Russia, and five OPEC countries show similar characteristics with the above regions. • The Tapio decoupling model is applied to analyze the CO 2 decoupling of 57 Belt and Road Initiative countries. • Five driving forces of CO 2 emissions are identified via the Kaya-LMDI model. • Spatiotemporal characteristics of decoupling and driving forces are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]