Trend-risk model for predicting non-revenue water: An application in Turkey.

Reducing non-revenue water (NRW) is one of the most significant strategies for the effective management of water resources. Efforts to reduce NRW and losses are also critical for planning the future budgets of water utilities. In this study, NRW prediction are made by a new approach based on trend and risk calculations based on historical data. Prediction, monitoring, and evaluation of NRW amounts according to specific risk values provide objective planning support for successful and sustainable water management. The relationship between specific risk levels and NRW loss amounts is explained through the model charts. Possible NRW losses for specific risk levels are predicted through 2023. NRW prediction provides advantages for budget balances and sound water utility decision-making, planning, and investment. • A approach suggested for NRW volume calculation with future planning and management activities is developed. • NRW amounts can be predicted by using of numerical method of risk assessment. • A flexible model is put forward by taking into consideration the experiential possibilities for NRW. • It has a probabilistic approach that provides the best projections in terms of the highest probability. • It allows the use of a method that enables the transition to risk vision for determining and estimating of NRW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]