未来气候变化对四种木姜子地理分布的影响.

In this paper, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system ( ArcGIS 10.3) softwares were used to predict the potential distribution areas of four Litsea species under the current and future climate conditions of China ( 2061 - 2080), and to analyze and classify their suitable habitats. The results were as follows: Litsea cubeba was widely distributed in the south to the Yangtze Hiver in China, and under the future climate with two ( HCP2.6, HCP8.5) carhon dioxide concentrations, during 2061-2080 the suitable anca for its distribution was reduced by 4.9%and 0.5%, respectively; L. coreana was mainly distributed in central and northern subtropical regions of China, and under the climate scenarios with two carbon dioxide concentrations, in 2061-2080 the total suitable area would be increased by 5.6% and 4.5%, respectively; L. greennumiana was mainly distributed in the south subtropical regions of China; L. mollis was widely distributed in the subtropical region. Under the future climate HCP2. 6 scenarios, the suitable area of the two species would be shrinked by 1.0% and 3.3%, respectively, and under the climale HCP8.5, the suitable area of the two species would be shrinked by 5.6% and 8.3%, respectively. These results reveal that due lo different ecological requirements, Litsea species will have different distributional responses to the future climate. the introduction and cultivation of Litsea species should consider the influences of climale change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]