Electric vehicle routing problem with machine learning for energy prediction.

• A probabilistic model for energy estimation with Bayesian machine learning is pro- posed. • A two stage time-dependent EVRP with chance-constrained partial recharging is pre- sented. • Realistic simulations and experiments with data from electric vehicles are performed. • Results indicate high accuracy, reliability and potential for energy savings. Routing electric commercial vehicles requires taking into account their limited driving range, which is affected by several uncertain factors such as traffic conditions. This paper presents the time-dependent Electric Vehicle Routing Problem with Chance-Constraints (EVRP-CC) and partial recharging. The routing method is divided into two stages, where the first finds the best paths and the second optimizes the routes. A probabilistic Bayesian machine learning approach is proposed for predicting the expected energy consumption and variance for the road links, paths and routes. Hence it is possible to consider the uncertainty in energy demand by planning charging within a confidence interval. The energy estimation is validated with data from electric buses driving a public transport route in Gothenburg-Sweden as well as with realistic simulations for 24 hours traffic in the city of Luxembourg connected to a high fidelity vehicle model. Routing solutions are compared with a deterministic formulation of the problem similar to the ones found in the literature. The results indicate high accuracy for the energy prediction as well as energy savings and more reliability for the routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]