The future of coal supply in China based on non-fossil energy development and carbon price strategies.

To realize China's low-carbon development, coal needs to be produced and consumed in a clean and efficient way. In this paper, a multi-regional coal supply model is developed to gain insights into China's coal supply system up to 2050. Regional disparity, coal classification, and the development of clean coal technologies are specified in the model. Based on MESSAGEix, this model takes full consideration of coal mining, preparation, transformation, and transportation processes. Moreover, the effects of non-fossil energy development and carbon price are discussed. With the above framework, the future of China's coal supply system is optimized. Results indicate that: 1) China's national raw coal production will peak in 2030 under the business- as -usual scenario, while it has already peaked under the GREEN and carbon price scenarios, 2) The amount of coal used in final consumption and transformed into coke decreases, while coal transformed into liquids and SNG increases from 11 Mt in 2015 to 221 Mt in 2050 under the business- as -usual scenario, 3) both non-fossil fuel development and carbon price strategies have a positive effect on coal supply regulation and coal-related GHG emission reduction, 4) carbon price could facilitate the adoption of CCS technology and can effectively reduce coal-related GHG emissions. • A multi-regional coal supply model with four types of raw coal is developed. • Raw coal production in China will peak in 2030 at 3791 Mt under the BAU scenario. • Coal production will be more concentrated in JSMN region and XJ region. • Raw coal output in the GREEN scenario is 9% lower than the BAU scenario in 2050. • Carbon price scenarios have a significant effect on GHG emissions reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]