New high-resolution estimates of the permafrost thermal state and hydrothermal conditions over the Northern Hemisphere.

Monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost is important in environmental science and engineering applications. However, such data are generally unavailable mainly due to the lack of ground observations and the uncertainty of traditional physical models. This study produces novel permafrost datasets for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), including predictions of the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the zero annual amplitude depth and active layer thickness (ALT) with a 1- km resolution for the period of 2000–2016, as well as estimates of the probability of permafrost occurrence and permafrost zonation based on hydrothermal conditions. These datasets integrate unprecedentedly large amounts of field data (1,002 boreholes for MAGT and 452 sites for ALT) and multisource geospatial data, especially remote sensing data, using statistical learning modelling with an ensemble strategy. Thus, these data are more accurate than those of previous circumpolar maps (bias=0.02±0.16 °C, RMSE=1.32±0.13 °C for MAGT; bias=2.71±16.46 cm, RMSE=86.93±19.61 cm for ALT). The datasets suggest that the areal extent of permafrost (MAGT≤0 °C) in the NH, excluding glaciers and lakes, is approximately 15.03 (13.84–19.29) ×106 km², and the areal extent of permafrost regions (permafrost probability>0) is approximately 20.14×106 km². The areal fractions of humid, semiarid/subhumid, and arid permafrost regions are 51.84%, 44.83%, and 3.33%, respectively. The areal fractions of cold (≤-3.0 °C), cool (-3.0 °C to -1.5 °C), and warm (>-1.5 °C) permafrost regions are 37.93%, 14.35%, and 47.72%, respectively. These new datasets based on the most comprehensive field data to date contribute to an updated understanding of the thermal state and zonation of permafrost in the NH. They are potentially useful for various fields, such as in climatology, hydrology, ecology, agriculture, public health, and engineering planning. As a baseline, these datasets are also of great importance for evaluating future changes in MAGT, ALT, permafrost extent, and other spatial features of permafrost in the NH. All of the datasets are published through the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), and the link is https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/en/data/5093d9ff-a5fc-4f10-a53f-c01e7b781368 or https://doi.org/10.11888/Geocry.tpdc.271190 (Ran et al., 2021b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]