A new model for ex-post quantification of the effects of local actions for climate change mitigation.

The evaluation of the effects of local actions for climate change mitigation is essential for the assessment and design of effective policies, as well as for the adequate diffusion of good practices. However, existing methodologies based on the comparison of the total energy use and/or accountable greenhouse gas emissions of two different years do not lead to an isolated quantification of the effects of local policy actions. This happens because many causes of change in the local energy use and accountable emissions are not designed and/or controlled by the local authorities, namely economic dynamics, and national policies. This paper proposes a new model for disaggregating the total observed changes into a number of sources of change, thus enabling an estimated quantification of the effects originating from local policies alone. The applicability of the model is demonstrated by a concrete case study, the municipality of Porto in Portugal. • Proposed method quantifies the effect of local actions on climate change mitigation. • Local changes in GHG emissions are disaggregated into different contributing causes. • The methodology is based on a sequential decomposition analysis. • Advancement towards better evaluation of municipal or local policy actions. • Validation achieved by applying the method to the municipality of Porto (Portugal). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]