Why do migrants in the shrinking cities prefer to settle down?

China's total floating population is more than 200 million. It will be beneficial for the improvement of urban management and urbanization quality to let more floating population settle down. Based on this, this paper uses the data of 270 cities from China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and China Urban Statistical Yearbook to analyze the settlement desire of the floating population, and finds that the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities is significantly stronger than that in the growing cities. Why is the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities with a decreasing population size significantly stronger than that of the growing cities? In this paper, the Logit model, Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) are constructed to analyze the resettlement desire of floating population at the individual level and the urban level respectively. The results show that: (1) The proportion of the floating population family members in the shrinking cities is higher than that in the growing cities, family reunion and the concentration of interpersonal networks are the reasons for the stronger settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities. (2) The high proportion of women in the floating population in shrinking cities is another reason for the strong settlement desire of the floating population in shrinking cities. At the same time, the characteristics of individuals' agricultural household registration and lower education level limit the flow of the floating population from the shrinking cities to the growing ones. (3) The costs of housing and other settlement conditions are relatively low in the shrinking cities, and it is easier for the floating population to cross the threshold of settlement and realize the settlement in the destination cities, resulting in a stronger settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities. (4) Some characteristics of the surrounding cities have a significant impact on the settlement desire of the floating population in the shrinking cities, such as the ratio of housing price to income, the proportion of the floating population with agricultural household registration and the number of years of education of the floating population in the surrounding cities. In view of this, this study puts forward the following policy recommendations: Too much policy intervention is not needed against the shrinking cities, for the settlement desire of the floating population in shrinking cities remains strong, and the shrinking process remains relatively stable. The obstacles of household registration and other related systems and mechanisms should be further removed, the education level of the floating population should be improved and appropriate regulation of the housing market should be introduced to ensure a reasonable price income ratio to promote the free flow of labor elements and improve the desire of the floating population to settle down in the cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]