Investigation of Cloud-to-Ground Flashes in the Non-Precipitating Stratiform Region of a Mesoscale Convective System on 20 August 2019 and Implications for Decision Support Services.

Infrequent lightning flashes occurring outside of surface precipitation pose challenges to Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) for outdoor activities. This paper examines the remote sensing observations from an event on 20 August 2019 where multiple cloud-to-ground flashes occurred over 10 km outside surface precipitation (lowest radar tilt reflectivity, 10 dBZ and no evidence of surface precipitation) in a trailing stratiform region of a mesoscale convective system. The goal is to demonstrate the fusion of radar with multiple lightning observations and a lightning risk model to demonstrate how reflectivity and differential reflectivity combined provided the best indicator for the potential of lightning where all of the other lightning safety methods failed. A total of 13 lightning flashes were observed by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) within the trailing stratiform region between 2100 and 2300UTC. The average size of the 13 lightning flashes was 3184 km², with an average total optical energy of 7734 fJ. A total of 75 NLDN flash locations were coincident with the 13GLMflashes, resulting in an average of 5.8 NLDN flashes [in-cloud (IC) and cloud-to-ground (CG)] per GLM flash. In total, five of the GLM flashes contained at least one positive cloud-to-ground flash (1CG) flash identified by the NLDN, with peak amplitudes ranging between 66 and 136 kA. All eight CG flashes identified by the NLDN were located more than 10 km outside surface precipitation. The only indication of the potential of these infrequently large flashes was the presence of depolarization streaks in differential reflectivity (ZDR) and enhanced reflectivity near the melting layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]