Modeling flow-related phosphorus inputs to tropical semiarid reservoirs.

Hydrological data and total phosphorus (TP) concentration at reservoirs' outlet were combined in a transient complete-mix model to obtain mean input loads and inlet concentration-flow relationships. This approach was designed to investigate the issue of phosphorus pollution in semiarid regions with intermittent rivers. The methodology was applied for twenty reservoirs in the State of Ceará, Brazilian semiarid. The modeled TP loads correlated well (R2 = 0.74) with reference loads estimated from environmental inventories, with only 10% of underestimated results. The average input loads per unit area of the catchments ranged from about 4 to 40 kg km−2 yr−1, which were considerably lower than the national average of about 500 kg km−2 yr−1. This was attributed to lower precipitation indexes, intermittent river regime and a high-density reservoir network, peculiar of the Brazilian semiarid. Meanwhile, the input load per unit area of a small and highly populated urban catchment, with higher precipitation indexes and deficient sanitation was substantially higher (2626 kg km−2 yr−1). Moreover, the fitted TP concentration-flow relationships directly reflected different TP input sources: strong u-shaped behavior marked the curves of highly non-point source dominated catchments, whereas a dilution pattern prevailed in those with significant point source inputs. The model validation with measured riverine TP concentration reached a NSE of 0.63. However, peak values in TP concentration during low flow rates sensitively affected the fitting of the models. In spite of non-point source dominance in the catchments, some relationships presented a slight signal of this use type. The variation range of the fitting parameters in comparison with other studies, as well the expected behavior of the curves in light of land use characteristics, strongly support the methodology applied in this study. The proposed approach will potentially help address the TP issue in tropical semiarid regions. Furthermore, the paper presents a simple way to deal with the challenging lack of monitored data in such environments. [Display omitted] • A mass-balance approach was designed to model TP inputs to tropical semiarid reservoirs. • Catchment usage was evaluated to identify TP sources and validate the proposed model. • TP loads were significantly lower than observed in other non-semiarid areas. • Precipitation, catchment area, river intermittence and reservoir network affected TP loads. • Different TP-inflow models were adjusted for PS and NPS dominated catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]