Landscape configuration mediates hydrology and nonpoint source pollution under climate change and agricultural expansion.

• Nonlinearity and interaction of drivers of runoff and nitrate were identified. • Agricultural expansion and climate change offset positive effect of forest restoration. • Landscape configuration determined surface runoff and nitrate load in wet season. • Cropland fragmentation is crucial to alleviate nitrate load. Climate variability and landscape modifications directly influence watershed hydrology and processes of nonpoint source pollution, while remedial action requires distinguishing their effects. However, nonlinearity and multiple causality limit our ability to diagnose causes. Therefore, this study developed an approach that integrates hydrological modeling, random forests, regression trees, and variation partitioning analysis, to identify the effects of climate and landscape pattern changes upon runoff and nitrate loading in two typical watersheds in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of China. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to track the spatiotemporal dynamics of runoff and nitrate loading (2000–2015). The findings showed that drylands and orchards were the dominant sources of nitrate and baseflow was the key mode of nitrate transport. Water yield and baseflow were mainly influenced by precipitation change, while the surface runoff and nitrate load were affected primarily by landscape pattern changes, especially in the wet season. Although ecological restoration programs have improved forest cover and forest fragmentation, the effects of forest restoration on the reduction of surface runoff and nitrate at the watershed scale have been offset by increased precipitation and agricultural expansion. Nevertheless, the role of landscape configuration is so dramatic that it can override variation in nitrate losses driven by changes in land cover and precipitation. Effective control of nitrate loss under intensive ecological restoration can be achieved by using a mosaic of "sink" patches to divide larger areas of cropland into smaller patches, maintaining cropland fragmentation, and limiting the increase in edge density of cropland. This paper's proposed and implemented approach provides a new understanding of the interactions and nonlinear relationship between hydrological processes and environmental change, providing explicit ideas and useful insights for landscape planners and managers for improving eco-hydrological functions of watershed at the practical level. We emphasize that the impact of land use change cannot be assumed to be linear in restoration strategies, instead nonlinear impacts, clear details of landscape configuration, and seasonal climatic characteristics should be explicitly considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]