EKF-based TS fuzzy prediction for eliminating the extremely fast reactive power variations in Manjil wind farm.

• Yet there are few studies for the extremely short-term forecasting of wind power. • Since the proposed approach is nonlinear, it provides more accurate modelling than the ARMA approach. • The proposed approach only uses the EKF algorithm to update the parameters which makes it suitable for online implantation. • It is robust against noisy easements and probabilistic behavior of the wind speed profile. • A proper model for the wind farm to simulate and evaluate the performance of the SVC based on real data is proposed. The inherent time-varying nature of the wind farm power causes undesired voltage flicker in the power network. In order to mitigate the flicker to enhance the performance of the wind power system with very fast dynamics, the static VAr compensator (SVC) is utilized. However, the SVC operates with some delays which negatively affects its performance. This persuades us to predict the reactive power of the wind farm to compensate for the real-world delay. The predicted reactive power is then utilized in the SVC. Therefore, this paper develops a novel fuzzy one-step-ahead prediction approach for the wind farm reactive power. The proposed fuzzy prediction uses a Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy representation whose unknown parameters are tuned online based on an extended Kalman filter (EKF). The wind farm is modeled as a time-varying current source which its amplitude and phase change every 0.01 s. A large set of the actual data of a wind farm in Manjil, Iran is gathered and directly utilized in the simulation process. Several flicker indices are calculated to evaluate the proposed prediction method. The obtained results show the performance enhancement and flicker mitigation of the suggested power scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]