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Resilience-Oriented Transmission Line Fragility Modeling and Real-Time Risk Assessment of Thunderstorms.
- Source :
-
IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery . Aug2021, Vol. 36 Issue 4, p2363-2373. 11p. - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- Fragility modeling and real-time risk assessment can be widely applied to evaluate and enhances the resilience of the power system to High-Impact and Low Probability events. In previous studies, fragility modeling generally targets extreme weather conditions other than thunderstorm. This paper proposes a fragility model to describe the relationship between the duration of a thunderstorm and the probability of lightning related trip-out. The duration of thunderstorms, which can usually be forecasted from the meteorological department, together with the fragility function expression can help a power company to predict the possibility of lightning related trip-out. Furthermore, this paper proposes a real-time risk assessment model that can dynamically adjust the risk value based on the update of the location, peak current, and subsequent stroke of real-time thunderstorm. A case study conducted on the lightning related trip-out data in Southwest China demonstrates that the average risk of transmission line trip-out in high risk group is about ten times that in low risk group. It clearly demonstrates that real-time risk assessment can efficiently distinguish the trip-out risks of different real-time thunderstorms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *THUNDERSTORMS
*ELECTRIC lines
*RISK assessment
*WEATHER
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08858977
- Volume :
- 36
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 153095122
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRD.2021.3066157