Seismogenic Potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust Constrained by Coupling Segmentation and Earthquake Scaling.

Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the MHT is prone to rupturing in Mw 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years. Plain Language Summary: Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude nine or larger. To draw such estimates, researchers compare how surface deformation translates as potential slip on a fault with the rate at which measured earthquakes occur. In short, these studies only consider the kinematics of the region and compare current seismicity with how much earthquakes are to be expected in the future considering the statistics of earthquakes do not change with time. Therefore, these studies do not take advantage of the recent advances in fault physics. Here, we compare surface deformation rates, earthquake catalogs and numerical simulations of the earthquake cycle to assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Our methodology incorporates outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle simulations into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting for all available uncertainties, the MHT is prone to rupturing in Mw 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years. Key Points: Combine probabilistic estimate of moment deficit rate with results from earthquake cycle dynamic models to assess the seismogenic potentialStraightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics‐based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimatesMain Himalayan Thrust prone to rupturing in M8.7, accounting for uncertainties on moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]