基于MCE-CA-Markov和InVEST模型的 伊犁谷地碳储量时空演变及预测.

Changes in carbon sources and sinks in terrestrial ecosystems are closely related to the evolution of land use / cover change （LUCC）. The mechanisms of land use change on carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems were investigated to provide theoretical references to understand the influence of spatio-temporal evolution patterns on regional carbon stocks. Based on the LUCC data of 1980—2020, the spatio-temporal dynamics of LUCC of the Yili Valley in 2030 were simulated through multi-criteria evaluation（MCE）, cellular automata （CA）, and Markov chain models. InVEST model explored the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of carbon stocks in the Yili Valley terrestrial ecosystem from 1980 to 2030 under the land use change. The results showed that the MCE-CA-Markov model predicted LUCC data set and the actual LUCC in 2000, 2010, and 2020, and their Kappa coefficients were 0.929 1, 0.875 5, and 0.929 7, respectively, indicating that model simulation was highly generalized and could be used to accurately assess the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon stocks in subsequent years; the InVEST model estimated that the total carbon stock of the Yili Valley was 1 114.95 Tg in 1980, and it would show a decreasing trend until 2030, with a cumulative net decrease of 65.9 Tg. The retreat of forest and grassland area was the dominant factor leading to the decrease in carbon stock; and the spatial distribution of carbon stocks in the Yili Valley was generally characterized by a nested distribution of high value areas around low value areas. The high value areas of carbon density were distributed in the southern and northern mountainous forests and grasslands, while the low value areas were concentrated in the central valley plains. Studying the impacts of land use change on the carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems can provide data support for carbon pool management in the study area, and subsequently, provide theoretical reference for the formulation of carbon sequestration and environmental protection policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]