Propagation of a precursory detachment front along a seismogenic plate interface in a rate–state friction model of earthquake cycles.

A numerical simulation of earthquake cycles at the subduction zone of a plate interface was conducted, using a rate- and state-dependent friction law, to examine aseismic sliding processes propagating into a locked plate interface. In the model, a reverse fault is assumed in a 2-D uniform elastic half-space, and relative plate motion is imposed with a constant velocity. Simulated earthquakes occur repeatedly at a shallower seismogenic plate interface with a velocity-weakening frictional property, while stable sliding occurs in the deeper part, in which a velocity-strengthening frictional property is assumed. During interseismic periods, deep stable sliding causes shear stress to concentrate at the deeper edge of the locked plate interface, and a partial drop in stress occurs, resulting in plate detachment. The resulting detachment front propagates upwards along the seismogenic plate interface until an earthquake occurs, causing aseismic sliding with a sliding velocity significantly lower than the imposed relative plate velocity. The propagation velocity of the detachment front is almost constant in each case, and it is proportional to the relative plate velocity and inversely proportional to the effective normal stress. Episodic events of increased slip velocity occur in the latter half of an interseismic period when the characteristic slip distance is small. Updip propagation of episodic slip is arrested by a low stress barrier, and episodic slips backpropagate downdip. During the final few years of the simulation cycle, the average sliding velocity is approximately inversely proportional to the time to occurrence for a large interplate earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]