Long-term uplift pattern recorded by rivers across contrasting lithology: Insights into earthquake recurrence in the epicentral area of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan.

Topography results from the interplay between rock uplift and erosion, and studying river responses to active tectonics may enable the rates and spatial distribution of rock uplift to be inferred. Normalized channel steepness index (k sn) is widely used to infer rock uplift rates, and rock erodibility plays a significant role in determining the variation of channel steepness in response to external forces. Various measures may be applied to evaluate rock erodibility; however, since they are essentially qualitative, it is difficult to quantify relationships between rock mass strength and channel forms. In this study, we inferred long-term rock uplift rates along the Futagawa fault, an active normal-dextral fault, and the Idenokuchi fault, an active normal fault, in southwestern Japan, based on morphological characteristics of rivers across substrates with contrasting erodibility. The widely used detachment-limited model predicts that, when the rock uplift rate is spatially uniform, the ratio of erodibility of different rock types can be written by an inverse ratio of their k sn values. We employed this theoretical prediction to quantitatively calibrate the effects of rock mass strength on channel steepness. Within the study area, channel steepness was larger in the eastern part where volcanic rocks were exposed than in the western part where less resistant sedimentary rocks predominated. We calculated ratios of substrate erodibility using drainage basins close to the Futagawa fault that experienced similar rock uplift. Calibrated k sn exhibited a clear difference between the eastern and the western part of the fault, suggesting that contrasting erodibility alone cannot explain the observed channel steepness. We also confirmed that the observed channel steepness could not be explained without differential rock uplift, even when considering the combined effects of channel width, precipitation, and erosion process. The distribution of long-term rock uplift rates inferred from calibrated k sn and vertical slip rates of the fault compiled from published papers agree with the distribution of vertical displacement of the earthquake that occurred on the fault in 2016, suggesting that earthquakes similar to the 2016 event have occurred repeatedly in the study area. • We calibrated channel steepness based on the erodibility of substrate materials. • Spatial distribution of long-term uplift is inferred from bedrock river morphology. • Long-term uplift is similar to the vertical displacement of the 2016 earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]