Once the best student always the best student? Predicting graduate study success using undergraduate academic indicators: Evidence from research masters' programs in the Netherlands.

In the face of increasing and diversifying graduate application numbers, evidence‐based selective admissions have become a pressing issue. By conducting multilevel regression analyses on institutional admissions data from a Dutch university, this study aims to determine the predictive value of undergraduate academic indicators for graduate study success on research masters' programs in the life sciences. The results imply that in addition to undergraduate grade point average, undergraduate thesis grade is a valid predictor of graduate grade point average. To a small extent, the examined undergraduate academic indicators also predict graduate degree completion and time to degree. The results from this study can be used by admissions committees for evaluating and improving their current practices of graduate selective admissions. Practitioner points: There is substantial scientific evidence that undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) is a valid predictor of certain dimensions of graduate study success. This paper adds to this evidence by showing that undergraduate thesis grade is also a valid predictor of graduate grade point average (GGPA).The predictive power of the type of prior higher education institution for the examined dimensions of graduate study success is small at best.Undergraduate academic indicators are better predictors of GGPA than of graduate degree completion or time to degree.The results of this study can be used for improving admissions decision‐making at graduate schools, especially ones with a research‐oriented curriculum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]