Social Revolutions in Small States.

This paper uses comparative political history to test hypotheses based on the Skocpolian conjunction theory with a data set of social revolutions in five small states, namely, Haiti (1791-1804), Bavaria (1918-19), Hungary (1918-19), Cuba (1956-9), Guinea-Bissau (1964-74). Small states are defined as those states with populations between 500,000 and 10 million where the decisive factors in domestic politics are determined by the actions of larger states around them (Azar 1973; Vital 1967). A social revolution is a fundamental and relatively rapid transformation of social, political, and economic institutions, and it is accompanied by mass-based insurrection. Further, change in the socio-political and economic institutions has to occur in a mutually reinforcing fashion (Huntington 1968: 264; Skocpol 1979: 4-5). In her early (1979) and later work (1994), Skocpol identifies five variables that interact to create the historical conjunction that causes a social revolution: state, international environment, economy, class structure, local politics. The five social revolutions will be analyzed through the use of a historical interpretive comparative method (Calvert 1990; Goodwin 2001; Ragin 1987) similar to the methodological approach used by Skocpol (1979: 36). The goal is to refine the causal, explanatory hypotheses about events (social revolutions) integral to macro-units (small states). The case-oriented strategy of the historical interpretive comparative method allows me to pay attention to the historical particularities of each case (Calvert 1990; Langley 1996), while focusing on the comparison of structural similarities and differences among all the cases at the same time. What distinguishes this comparative research project is that it considers state size as a theoretically important factor. While the case studies satisfy a strict definition of ?social revolution? or ?aborted social revolution,? relations between people and politics in small states are unique (Shou and Brundtland 1970; Vital 1971) and not mere replications of the classical revolutions. While Skocpol presents a conceptual framework for the connection between international and domestic politics, which is necessary to analyze small states, her theoretical model also enables one to argue that the structure of local politics in small states still matters. I have found that Haiti, Hungary, Bavaria, and Guinea-Bissau have not been explored by revolution theorists. On the other hand, Cuba has attracted much scholarly attention. As a group, the small states in this study vary in historical time and geo-political space, covering three continents and two major time periods: classical and modern. If one follows the logic of the Skocpolian theory consistently, then all states are autonomous, even small ones, and hence they are independent, to some degree, from domestic social structures as well as international politics. The international system can be a resource for a small state economically and militarily making it more independent from domestic social forces (Skocpol 1994). One needs to study how the international system enhances as much as it limits the autonomy of small states. The literature on small states suggests, furthermore, that there can be political advantages in terms of organizational capabilities for people in a small state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]