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Machine learning models for prediction of HF and CKD development in early-stage type 2 diabetes patients.
- Source :
-
Scientific Reports . 11/21/2022, Vol. 12 Issue 1, p1-13. 13p. - Publication Year :
- 2022
-
Abstract
- Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF) are the first and most frequent comorbidities associated with mortality risks in early-stage type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, efficient screening and risk assessment strategies for identifying T2DM patients at high risk of developing CKD and/or HF (CKD/HF) remains to be established. This study aimed to generate a novel machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of developing CKD/HF in early-stage T2DM patients. The models were derived from a retrospective cohort of 217,054 T2DM patients without a history of cardiovascular and renal diseases extracted from a Japanese claims database. Among algorithms used for the ML, extreme gradient boosting exhibited the best performance for CKD/HF diagnosis and hospitalization after internal validation and was further validated using another dataset including 16,822 patients. In the external validation, 5-years prediction area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for CKD/HF diagnosis and hospitalization were 0.718 and 0.837, respectively. In Kaplan–Meier curves analysis, patients predicted to be at high risk showed significant increase in CKD/HF diagnosis and hospitalization compared with those at low risk. Thus, the developed model predicted the risk of developing CKD/HF in T2DM patients with reasonable probability in the external validation cohort. Clinical approach identifying T2DM at high risk of developing CKD/HF using ML models may contribute to improved prognosis by promoting early diagnosis and intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 160326351
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-24562-2