Quantitative decomposition of China's industrial energy consumption structure based on production-theoretical decomposition method.

The environment constraints have become more restrictive over time, because the transformation of energy consumption structure (ECS) is the key path to achieve the commitment of net-zero emission. However, the adjustment of ECS involves the influence of many factors, including economic factors, energy factors and social factors. Not to mention how ECS -driving factors under tougher environmental regulation may behave throughout long time period remains explored. According to the background, the periodic driving factors of industrial ECS in China based on the periodic effect of environmental regulation on ECS are discussed. In this paper, industries of China are divided into four sectors from 1998 to 2017, and a multi-layer LMDI decomposition model is constructed to decompose ECS of the four sectors in stages. Since the industrial and commercial sector provides the largest contribution rate, the LMDI model based on PDA production theory method is applied to decompose industrial and commercial ECS , aiming to deeply explore the main driving factors of ECS in subindustries, and formulate scientific energy and environmental policies. The results show that from the perspective of the whole industry, the per capita pollution control investment has the most significant negative contribution, and the economic activity effect provides a great positive contribution to the ECS. In terms of subindustries, the main negative drivers are potential energy intensity and GDP technology change. The comprehensive decomposition framework. [Display omitted] • The drivers of ECS in four sectors are identified. • An integrated decomposition measurement combined LMDI with PDA is constructed. • EP is major inhibiting factor of ECS optimizing in four sectors. • PE and GT are major inhibiting factors of ECS optimizing in subsectors. • Some policy recommendations to optimize energy consumption structure are purposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]