Recognition of Pre-Conflict Patterns and Constellations - a Winning Method for Risk Analyses or Even Potential Prognoses?

There are no standard formulas, or universal principles for recognizing, let alone forecasting violent conflict. Still, a set of explanatory factors considering background conditions as well as escalatory dynamics helps simplify the task of recognizing critical situations. The topic of this paper concerns constellations and convergences of specific factors that characterize the pre-conflict phase of violent political conflicts. By the use of quantitative analytical methods, it focuses on the direct interaction between structural and dynamic indicators as precursors to crises. A model of indicators is presented that takes into account structurally determined cleavage lines in equal measure as their very mobilization by dynamic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]