Are Coalitional Politics Crumbling in Bolivia? Assessing Bolivia’s Electoral System and its Impact on Coalition-Building Capacity, 2002-2004.

This paper endeavors to answer the following question: to what extent does the Bolivian electoral system have an impact on executive-legislative dynamics? And how does the electoral system facilitate or undermine coalition building in this country? The study proposes that because the Bolivian mixed system of plurality and proportional representation (PR) for legislative elections, and the congressional election of the president due to the executive electoral formula, have categorically determined the allocation of power in the political system, the interaction between the executive and the legislative branches of government is profoundly influenced by it. The paper analyzes the period starting with the second half of the Quiroga administration until the resignation of President Sanchez de Lozada, and the coming to power of President Carlos Mesa in 2003 to 2004. The first part of the paper provides a brief assessment of the most significant electoral arrangements in Bolivia and of executive-legislative relations before 2000-2002. The second part deals with the period starting in 2000. This section specifically deals with (a) a brief analysis of the effects of the 1997 electoral reform on the ability of marginalized sectors of society to occupy prominent political spaces in subsequent electoral scenarios, and on the potential ability of legislators to better respond to social (local) demands and (b) the ability citizens had to openly question the status quo through the popular mobilization movements of 2000. An analysis of the President and Congress’ responsiveness to citizens’ demands in 2000 is provided. The third part of the paper analyzes the 2002-2004 period concentrating on the Sanchez de Lozada administration, and the electoral and governing coalition that temporarily helped sustain his regime. In this section, the impact of the electoral system on the formation of the coalition is analyzed. This is also evaluated against other factors that influenced the institutional interaction between Sanchez de Lozada and the 2002 Congress. This is done, starting in June 2002, using a model of executive-legislative relations that integrates a process-oriented approach along a confrontation-accommodation continuum. Similarly, the collapse of coalition governments and coalitional politics in Bolivia that took place in October 2003 is analyzed, as well as the first signs of the restructuring of the political system undertaken by President Mesa in the first part of 2004. The last section provides some conclusions and reflections based on the overall analysis provided through the paper. The project relies on research conducted by the author as a member of the Organization of American States (OAS) Electoral Observation Mission to Bolivia for the June 2002 elections. Data is also extracted from national and international newspapers and periodicals covering Bolivian current politics as well as the results of interviews with key political actors and experts in Washington, DC and La Paz, Bolivia. The paper also utilizes other secondary sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]