Causes and Consequences ofCrossover Voting in Presidential Primaries.

What are the consequences of permitting crossover voting in presidential primaries? Our paper addresses this question by investigating the extent, sources, and effects of crossover voting in the 2000 primaries. We employ data from the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey, which permits close scrutiny of several primary electorates and an account of dynamics. The 2000 primaries challenge us to think of the primary electorate not as unitary but as nonetheless collective. Crossover voting, we find, was common in the 2000 presidential primaries. John McCain was its beneficiary, and the benefits came mainly at the expense of Bill Bradley. The extent of crossover varied from primary to primary, depending on the openness of the electoral rules and the electorate’s long-standing party commitments, but also on the relative appeal of specific candidates and on voters’ reckoning of each candidate’s chances of winning his party’s nomination. The impact of crossover in large numbers is to create a more centrist primary electorate, enhancing the chances of more moderate candidates. But beyond that, if an influx of crossover voters can change the character of a particular primary electorate, how does that affect the nature of the contest for the nomination? In particular, how does the potential for crossover voting influence the strategic choices of the candidates? The paper provides both an account of the dynamics of the 2000 primary seasons, Republican and Democratic, and a more general exploration of the political import of opening primaries to the participation of independents and members of the opposing camp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]