The Governor?s Backyard: a Bayesian Model to Estimate Partisan Bias in Multiparty (Subnational) Electoral Reforms.

Abstract: Evaluating the fairness of electoral reforms is a critical requirement of electoral accountability in any democracy. After 20 years of continuous subnational electoral reforms in Argentina, however, no research has estimated the expected seat benefit for incumbent reformers. Much of this delay is due to the technical difficulties of generalizing previous seat-vote models to multi-party settings. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model we solve this analytical problem and produce comparable estimates of partisan bias and majoritarian bias in the Argentine provinces. Our estimates show large seat premiums for incumbent parties initiating electoral reforms in Argentina. By explaining the mechanisms through which local politicians successfully disengage their political environment from national level races, we also provide a general framework to understand the endogenous drive to reform subnational electoral systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]