Development of a system model to predict flows and performance of regional waste management planning: A case study of England.

Significant loss of valuable resources and increasing burdens on landfills are often associated with a lack of proper planning in waste management and resource recovery strategy. A sustainable waste management model is thus urgently needed to improve resource efficiency and divert more waste from landfills. This paper proposes a comprehensive system model using stock-and-flow diagram to examine the current waste management performance and project the future waste generation, treatment and disposal scenarios, using England as a case study. The model comprises three integrated modules to represent household waste generation and collection; waste treatment and disposal; and energy recovery. A detailed mass and energy balance has been established and waste management performance has been evaluated using six upstream and downstream indicators. The base case scenario that assumes constant waste composition shows that waste to landfills can be reduced to less than 10% of the total amount, by 2035. However, it entails greater diversion of waste to energy-from-waste facilities, which is not sustainable and would incur higher capital investment and gate fees. Alternative case scenarios that promote recycling instead of energy recovery result in lower capital investment and gate fees. Complete elimination of the food and organic fraction from the residual waste stream will help meet the 65% recycling target by 2035. In light of the need for achieving a more circular economy in England, enhancing material recovery through reuse and recycling, reducing reliance on energy-from-waste and deploying more advanced waste valorisation technologies should be considered in future policy and planning for waste management. • A stock-and-flow model for waste management in England has been developed. • Resource recovery potential has been proposed as a more robust indicator. • Material recovery and valorisation should be promoted in lieu of energy-from-waste. • Diversion of waste to incineration incurs higher capital investment and gate fees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]