Case-driven assessment of power grid emergency response capability considering typhoon disaster scenario diversity.

The effective assessment of power grid emergency response capability (PERC) is the most fundamental aspect in the emergency continuity plans for urban power grid protection. Existing PERC assessment methods assign PERC indicator values under specific disaster scenarios based on one-round expert scores. However, the emergency continuity plans are often continuous and consider diverse scenarios, which makes the assessment quite time-consuming and unrealistic given too many to consider. In this paper, a case-driven method is proposed to solve the assessment problem of PERC with multiple typhoon disaster scenarios while considering the past experience as a guide for real decision making. Firstly, in terms of hierarchical PERC indicator framework, the <typhoon scenario - response indicator - assessment result > framework structure of power grid emergency cases is proposed to make case experience modeled and reusable. Secondly, a case scenario similarity algorithm is applied to select the PERC assessment rules (by mapping relations between response indicators and assessment results) that are most similar to the real scenarios. Then the rules are integrated while considering rule variety and case weights. Next, the hierarchical assessment results are obtained by integrating the confidence coefficient values and corresponding utility values. Finally, the method is verified based on the empirical data from Shenzhen, China. The results show the proposed method not only helps in integrating case experience but also assists in quickly generating reasonable PERC assessment results. • Power grid emergency continuity plan requires considering disaster scenario diversity. • Existing capability assessment methods are limited by unsustainable expert scoring. • We use a case-driven scheme to assess emergency capability through experience reuse. • Capability assessment rules are extracted by measuring case scenario similarity. • A three-level indicator framework is constructed for emergency capability assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]