SIMULACIÓN DEL GRADO DE PREPARACIÓN ANTE UN DESASTRE NATURAL FUTURO. Caso Estudio Borrasca Filomena.

Disaster risk is a social process characterized by the coincidence, at the same time and place, of potentially dangerous physical phenomena and socioeconomic elements exposed to these phenomena in a condition of vulnerability. Therefore, forces derived from society and nature are at work in determining the existence of risk and its levels. Neither of these two elements are stable or permanent over time. They undergo continuous changes and variations. In this sense, this work presents a system dynamics simulation model of the degree of preparedness in the disaster risk management process at the level of an autonomous community. All this with the aim of raising awareness of the problematic of the social and economic impact of this type of physical phenomena. This model is applied to the context of the Filomena storm (natural disaster that took place in Spain on January 7, 2021) in order to validate its usefulness in a real case study. The model is implemented in two simulations and results are compared. In the first simulation, actual data associated with the policies, reports and descriptions of the community of Madrid during the 120 days prior to the event are introduced according to certain variables within the Sendai risk reduction framework (forecast errors, available information, CO2 emissions, recycling and commodity index prices). With that, the value " of the "Degree of Preparedness" achieved by the capital before the storm is obtained. In the second simulation, these input variables of the model are modified to analyze the effect it would have had on the "Degree of Preparedness". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]