The implications of material and energy efficiencies for the climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios.

Limiting global warming well below 2 °C requires substantial increase in the installation of low-carbon electricity generation technologies (EGTs). EGTs however require several critical materials and materials associated with considerable energy, water and CO 2 emissions. This paper assesses the implications of materials and energy efficiencies for climate change mitigation potential of global energy transition scenarios (GETS). The analysis is carried out using a dynamic material flow-stock model for 21 materials and 15 scenarios combining GETS developed by international organizations including International Energy Agency (IEA) and Greenpeace (GP), materials scenarios, and energy, water, and emissions intensities scenarios. Materials related CO 2 emissions are expected to constitute between 4% and 14% the emissions reported in the IEA Sustainable Development scenario, while expected to be between 10% and 28% in GP Advanced Revolution scenario. Increasing material efficiency and reducing emissions intensities (driven by increasing energy efficiency, renewable technologies in energy supply mix, and recycling) reduce cumulative emissions by 73.2% and 26.3% respectively, while both reduce emissions by 79.5%. Increasing materials efficiency in EGT, energy and water efficiency in mining activities mainly for iron, aluminium, and nickel, and recycling, combined with careful selection of EGTs are significant to realize the full potential of GETS in climate change mitigation. • Materials and energy efficiencies implications for climate change mitigation potential of energy scenarios are assessed. • Dynamic material flow-stock model for 21 materials and 15 combined materials and energy scenarios are used. • Materials related CO 2 emissions constitute between 4% and 14% of emissions reported in IEA Sustainable Development scenario. • Increasing material efficiency and reducing emission intensities reduce cumulative emissions by 79.5%. • Increasing materials efficiency and recycling, and careful selection of EGT are significant for climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]