The Late 1970s Shift in ENSO Persistence Barrier Modulated by the Seasonal Amplitude of ENSO Growth Rate.

The persistence barrier (PB), one of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties, has exhibited a significant decadal variability, showing enhanced and weakened behavior before and after the late 1970s, respectively. In the present study, both the theoretical solution and the observations indicate that the variability of PB intensity is linearly proportional to the seasonal amplitude of ENSO growth rate, which accounts for the ENSO PB decadal variability. With further use of the Bjerknes–Jin (BJ) index analysis, we find that the decadal reduction in PB intensity since the late 1970s is mainly attributed to the mean advection and the thermocline feedback. In addition, the stronger spring thermal damping delayed the timing of PB in the 1980s and 1990s. Our study establishes a linear relationship between PB intensity and ENSO growth rate, which carries implications for understanding the ENSO predictability and the systematic changes in ENSO properties under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]