Caracterización del comportamiento futuro de la precipitación asociado al fenómeno de cambio climático en el área de producción hidroeléctrica embalse Arenal, Costa Rica.

Identifying and understanding the effects of climate change is critical to formulating optimal adaptation and mitigation measures. One of the priority issues for socioeconomic development is energy stability; however, some sources, such as hydroelectricity, are vulnerable to this phenomenon. Therefore, the main objective of the research is to identify the climatic variations that climate change could generate, with special emphasis on precipitation, in the hydroelectric production area of Arenal reservoir, Costa Rica. The materials used include historical records of meteorological stations with a base period from 1971 to 2000, as well as modeled and downscaled series from the MRI-CGCM3 model, for the Central American zone, in two scenarios of increasing radiative forcing (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with future horizon to 2100. Climatic variability was established by the calculation of climatic indices defined by the ETCCDI: simple precipitation intensity index, annual count of days when PRCP = 1 mm, maximum duration of the dry spell, maximum duration of the period of rainfall and total annual precipitation on wet days. The main findings of the research show evidence of alterations in the intensity and frequency of precipitation in the study area, mainly associated with decreases of medium magnitude in the amount of annual precipitation and the count of wet days, while there would be increases in the maximum length of dry spell, which is an unfavorable scenario for hydroelectric production and for other economic activities. In general, the indices that present significant variations are characterized by effects of medium magnitude compared to historical data, although indices such as PRCPTOT, SDII and CDD would present changes with a large effect, mainly between the medium and distant future, with the Tilarán area being the most affected, compared to the area of La Fortuna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]