"The impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies on the European road transport sector".

This paper analyses historical energy consumption trends of the EU road transport sector and examines the role of key determinants, such as economic and population growth, fuel prices, passenger and tonne-kilometres and vehicle fleet characteristics. In light of the EU 2030 and 2050 energy and climate targets, the paper assesses the energy efficiency and decarbonisation progress from 2000 to 2018. A detailed analysis is carried out using a balanced panel dataset from 1995 to 2018 and a test for causality between energy consumption and the selected explanatory variables. The results suggest that the declining trend of the normalised energy consumption of cars, trucks and light vehicles, which both dropped significantly in 2018 compared to 2000, can be related to energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies adopted by the EU and its Member States over the studied period. Decomposition analysis based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index technique confirms the role of energy efficiency gains in curbing energy consumption of road transport, even with the strong upward force exerted by motorisation and population effects, especially in passenger transport. It also suggests that during the recession years (2008–2013), road transport consumption fell due to a sharp drop in the mileage but not in the motorisation effect, which continued to drive up consumption even in this period. Despite some positive developments, the increased demand for road transportation has led to continued energy consumption growth. This has been further compounded by differences between real-world and vehicle certification fuel consumption data. The article highlights the need to strengthen the current policy framework at the EU and MS levels in the next decade to reach the long-term decarbonisation targets. In the context of these targets, a more in-depth investigation of the real impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation efforts will also become increasingly important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]