Assessing vegetation restoration prospects under different environmental elements in cold and arid mountainous region of China.

• The long-term memory of vegetation trends is analysed using the Hurst exponent. • An improved vegetation restoration potential assessment framework is constructed. • Vegetation restoration sustainability varied across the study area. • Select propriate vegetation restoration strategies are necessary. Assessing vegetation restoration prospects (VRPs) in degraded terrestrial ecosystems is of great importance for planning ecological restoration projects. However, few existing studies have systematically analyzed the relationship between vegetation trend persistence and VRPs and their drivers, especially in cold and arid mountainous areas. The typical cold and arid mountainous region-the Qilian Mountains was taken as the study area, and the trends and long-term memory of the growing season normalized difference vegetation index (GSNDVI) from 2000 to 2020 were explored. We constructed a VRPs assessment framework and identified the main environmental elements influencing vegetation restoration. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the vegetation improvement area of the Qilian Mountains was much larger than the degraded area, especially in the northwestern area, and the vegetation improvement was significant. About 31% of the study area showed an anti-persistent positive development trend, which requires continued attention and increased recovery efforts in the future. The terrain niche index (TNI), drought index and soil types were the environmental elements that had a strong influence on the VRPs. Regions with low TNI (< 0.6), high drought index (> 5), desert areas and organic soil environments were more likely to be restored with lower uncertainty. This study can provide a new framework for assessing VRPs in the Qilian Mountains and is expected to provide scientific guidance for ecosystem restoration planning in other regions worldwide, supporting the achievement of sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]