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Modeling Socioeconomic Determinants of Building Fires through Backward Elimination by Robust Final Prediction Error Criterion.
- Source :
-
Axioms (2075-1680) . Jun2023, Vol. 12 Issue 6, p524. 22p. - Publication Year :
- 2023
-
Abstract
- Fires in buildings are significant public safety hazards and can result in fatalities and substantial financial losses. Studies have shown that the socioeconomic makeup of a region can impact the occurrence of building fires. However, existing models based on the classical stepwise regression procedure have limitations. This paper proposes a more accurate predictive model of building fire rates using a set of socioeconomic variables. To improve the model's forecasting ability, a backward elimination by robust final predictor error (RFPE) criterion is introduced. The proposed approach is applied to census and fire incident data from the South East Queensland region of Australia. A cross-validation procedure is used to assess the model's accuracy, and comparative analyses are conducted using other elimination criteria such as p-value, Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and predicted residual error sum of squares (PRESS). The results demonstrate that the RFPE criterion is a more accurate predictive model based on several goodness-of-fit measures. Overall, the RFPE equation was found to be a suitable criterion for the backward elimination procedure in the socioeconomic modeling of building fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20751680
- Volume :
- 12
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Axioms (2075-1680)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 164581473
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms12060524