A DFN-based framework for probabilistic assessment of groundwater contamination in fractured aquifers.

It is challenging to conduct groundwater contamination risk assessment in fractured aquifers containing a large number of complex fractures, especially in a situation where the uncertainty of massive fractures and fluid-rock interactions is inevitable. In this study, a novel probabilistic assessment framework based on discrete fracture network (DFN) modeling is proposed to assess the uncertainty of groundwater contamination in fractured aquifers. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to quantify the uncertainty of fracture geometry, and the environmental and health risks of the contaminated site are probabilistically analyzed in conjunction with the water quality index (WQI) and hazard index (HI). The results show that the contaminant transport behavior in fractured aquifers can be strongly affected by the distribution of the fracture network. The proposed framework of groundwater contamination risk assessment is capable of practically accounting for the uncertainties involved in the mass transport process and effectively assessing the contamination risk of fractured aquifers. [Display omitted] • A highly heterogeneous discontinuity exists in the fractured aquifer. • Numerical simulation based on discrete fracture network (DFN) is a feasible method to study fractured aquifers. • Fracture uncertainty should be taken into account in contamination prediction and risk assessment. • Monte Carlo simulation is used to establish a probabilistic assessment framework. • Risk assessment is performed using assessment index and probability of contamination occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]