广东省植被叶面积指数时空变化特征及其影响因素.

Vegetation variation is one of important indicators to evaluate the quality of ecological environment and measure the status of surface vegetation. Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamic variation of vegetation and its influencing factors is of great significance for the protection of ecological environment and the restoration of vegetation. Based on MODIS LAI satellite remote sensing products, meteorological data and socio-economic data, the spatial-temporal variation of LAI and its influencing factors in Guangdong province from 2003 to 2020 were explored through Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, Hurst index analysis and geographic detector. The results show that the variation of LAI annual mean exhibits a fluctuating upward trend(0.219/10a)from 2003 to 2020, and the LAI seasonal average in the descending order are winter(0.405/10a), spring(0.251/10a), autumn(0.139/10a)and summer(0.111/10a); spatially, high values of LAI are distributed in the northwest, while low values are distributed in the southeast, mainly in the Pearl River Delta and coastal economic zone. LAI showes a weakly sustainable and weakly anti-sustainable trend in the future. Moreover, the area with sustainability and improvement is larger than the area showing stability and degradation, indicating the strong possibility of improvement for vegetation in Guangdong province in the future. The main influencing factors of LAI in Guangdong province are elevation, population density and GDP, of which elevation has the most impact with an explanatory power of 16.9% for LAI spatial distribution. Moreover, the interaction of two factors could enhance the explanatory power of LAI spatial distribution in Guangdong province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]