Learning business process simulation models: A Hybrid process mining and deep learning approach.

Business process simulation is a well-known approach to estimate the impact of changes to a process with respect to time and cost measures – a practice known as what-if process analysis. The usefulness of such estimations hinges on the accuracy of the underlying simulation model. Data-Driven Simulation (DDS) methods leverage process mining techniques to learn business process simulation models from event logs. Empirical studies have shown that, while DDS models adequately capture the observed sequences of activities and their frequencies, they fail to accurately capture the temporal dynamics of real-life processes. In contrast, generative Deep Learning (DL) models are better able to capture such temporal dynamics. The drawback of DL models is that users cannot alter them for what-if analysis due to their black-box nature. This paper presents a hybrid approach to learn process simulation models from event logs wherein a (stochastic) process model is extracted via DDS techniques, and then combined with a DL model to generate timestamped event sequences. The proposed approach allows us to simulate different types of changes, including the addition of new activity types to a process. This latter capability is achieved by encoding the activities by means of embeddings, rather than representing them as one-hot-encoded categories. An experimental evaluation shows that the resulting hybrid simulation models match the temporal accuracy of pure DL models, while partially retaining the what-if analysis capability of DDS approaches. The evaluation also sheds light into the relative performance of multiple embedding approaches to represent the activities. • Hybrid models balance DL accuracy and DDS what-if analysis capabilities. • DeepSimulator excels at estimating changes' impact in what-if analysis. • Embeddings enable accurate predictions for new activities in DeepSimulator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]