With a little help from my friends? The impact of social networks on citizens' forecasting ability.

Partisan preferences usually stand out as the major driving force behind voters' expectations about election outcomes. Apart from partisan preferences, however, purely individual‐level factors appear to be only weakly associated with forecasting ability. Some studies argue that we need to move from the strictly personal sphere to the interpersonal one to better understand the underpinnings of individuals' forecasting ability. This paper leverages data from 77 elections at the district, municipal, regional, and/or national levels in 10 different countries to assess the impact of social networks and social interactions on the accuracy of citizens' electoral expectations. The results cast doubt on the capacity of social interactions to influence citizens' forecasting skills. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]